Statistical modelling of archaeological sites locations as non-stationary cox processes and its use in forecasting

Giuseppe Arbia, Giuseppe Espa

«Archeologia e Calcolatori» 1997, 8, 37-41

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to introduce a class of testable statistical models aimed at modelling archaeological sites locations (ASL) or a continuous space and at producing probability maps of ASL. These models are based on collected statistical and auxiliary information (such as information about the slope or exposure of the land, the topography, the hydrology, the topology, etc.). More explicitly the model for the ASL is based on the assumption that the location of the existing archaeological sites is fixed and that the location of new archaeological sites not yet found is a realization of a non-stationary point process depending on the spatial interaction with other existing sites, on the distance from important location or communication networks, and on a set of auxiliary variables. It is also possible to introduce into the discussion information we have about the archaeological site dimensions. In fact, it is plausible that the interaction between existing archaeological sites and candidate locations for new archaeological sites is dependent on their dimension. These models can prove valuable in that they formalize some “common sense” knowledge and can help in producing automated probability maps on a continuous space to support excavation decisions.

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